‏إظهار الرسائل ذات التسميات Power. إظهار كافة الرسائل
‏إظهار الرسائل ذات التسميات Power. إظهار كافة الرسائل

الثلاثاء، 11 سبتمبر 2012

Power deficits to continue

With power cuts still leaving Egyptians sweltering in a hot summer, Sherine Abdel-Razek looks at the medium term prospects for new power generation

Soon after the Eid vacation, which marks the end of Ramadan, 9pm will be the closing time for shops around Egypt, a move aimed at reducing demand on electricity. While reactions to the decision are mixed, it is too early to know if this move alone will resolve Egypt's recurrent power crises.

Demand on electricity in Egypt has increased with economic growth. According to the Information and Decision Support Centre (IDSC), a think tank affiliated to the council of ministers, the amount of electricity locally generated increased by 78 per cent in 2009/2010 compared to its level in 2000/2001, to reach 129 gigawatts per hour. Meanwhile, the amount of electricity consumed soared 95 per cent during the same period to reach 127 gigawatts per hour.

Power cuts have been a seasonal problem since 2008. According to a report prepared by the African Development Bank on the power sector, nominal generation capacity is less than summer peak demand. Peak electricity demand increased by more than 200 per cent between 1990 and 2009. As a result, dispatchers resorted to load shedding in the summers of 2008, 2009 and 2010. However, the problem exacerbated during the current and past year.

The African Development Bank report notes that although the Egyptian Electricity Holding Company (EEHC) added some capacity since 2008, the reserve margin (between production capacity and consumption) will remain low for the next several years, generally below 10 per cent instead of a standard 12-15 per cent needed to ensure adequate levels of reliability.

There are plans to moderate demand growth, which is forecast to continue at a rather high annual rate of 6.5 per cent over the 2010-2020 period, as highlighted by the AFDB report. An IDSC report entitled, The Status and Future of the Power Industry in Egypt, noted that, "there are four five-year-plans to add an extra 58 gigawatts to national production by year 2027."

According to these plans, the contribution of renewable energy to overall energy production will increase to reach 20 per cent. No matter what energy mix the country decides to pursue, investment requirements are large. "In practice, power supply capacity should expand by about 2,000 megawatts per year, which in turn implies an investment of approximately $3 billion to $4 billion per year," noted the African Development Bank report.

Recognising limited cash flow in the power sector, the government has adopted a plan to remove constraints. This includes gradual removal of subsidies on energy intensive industries. Moreover, it has decided to use public private partnership projects as well as private sector schemes to mobilise resources, according to the African Development Bank.

Worth mentioning is that the power industry is almost totally controlled by the public sector, with the EEHC representing the majority of the sector's assets. However, private equity totalling about $350 million entered the sector through three private power projects in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

Last year the number of Egyptians connected to the national grid was 26.6 million. Egyptian per capita consumption reached 1,782 kilowatts per hour in 2009/2010 compared to a global average of 2,730 kilowatts per hour. Egypt is the lowest in per capita consumption among its regional peers.

The residential sector accounts for almost half of total electricity consumption, a very high percentage when compared to the international average, and the industrial sector for a fifth.

Residential units represent the bulk of the electricity subsidy bill. Egypt adopts a bracket pricing system for billing electricity consumption at home, starting with LE0.05 for the first 50 kilowatts per hour and increasing to LE0.48 for the consumption of more than 1,000 kilowatts per hour.

The price of different brackets saw gradual increases since 1992 that range between 32.5 per cent for the lowest bracket and 92 per cent for the highest.

As well as direct subsidy, Egyptians benefit in electricity prices from subsidies given to fuel used in power generation.


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الاثنين، 10 سبتمبر 2012

Women power in Tunisia?

Tunisian women are becoming increasingly concerned at the possible consequences of Islamist rule, writes Lasaad Ben Ahmed in Tunis Protesters wave flags and shout slogans during a demonstration in Tunis. Thousands of Tunisians rallied on Monday to protest against what they see as a push by the Islamist-led government for constitutional changes that would degrade women's status in one of the Arab world's most liberal nations

Women's Day, held on 13 August, was marked by exceptional events in Tunisia this year, with hundreds of Tunisian women gathering for a night-time demonstration at 14 January Square on Al-Habib Bourguiba Street in the capital Tunis. The demonstration was a clear signal of defiance to the Islamist groups that Tunisian women feel are threatening their rights, despite reassurances that the ruling Islamist Al-Nahda Party will not seek to change the country's liberal personal status laws.

The fears had been stoked after the first draft of the country's proposed new constitution had referred to women's "complementarity" to men, which Tunisian women reject, saying that they want equality and not complementarity. The use of the word in the draft constitution triggered a series of protests, especially among the country's opposition and the nascent Tunisia Call Party led by former prime minister Al-Beji Caid Al-Sebsi.

In a statement, Al-Sebsi said that the personal status laws were a "red line" that could not be crossed, as any infringement of women's rights would undermine modern Tunisian society.

Some observers feel that the reactions to the word have been exaggerated, since it was used in a draft version of the new constitution that will be debated after the Tunisian parliament returns from recess in early September.

At the same time, article 22 of the constitution states that Tunisian citizens are equal in terms of rights, duties and freedoms. The protests against the use of the word "complementarity", some observers argue, have been exaggerated "by an opposition that has failed to make a contribution or present an alternative [to the ruling Al-Nahda Party] and has been left out of the transitional process at a time when the country needs to consolidate efforts."

Although the first draft of the new constitution is now finished, albeit after some delays, the rapporteur of the country's constituent assembly, Al-Habib Khedher, has said that it will be impossible to produce a final draft by the 23 October deadline, given the bickering among MPs on many crucial issues, such as the character of Tunisia's new political system and whether it will be parliamentary, presidential or a mix of the two.

Some political groups have used such delays as an excuse to call for a vote of no confidence in the Al-Nahda Party, saying that "it has not and will not meet the one-year deadline for writing a new constitution." Meanwhile, no real progress has been made in dealing with Tunisia's structural problems of unemployment and imbalanced regional development, stirring up a series of protests.

Hundreds of people have taken to the streets across the country recently in such protests, notably in the town of Sidi Bouzeid, the cradle of last year's Tunisian revolution, triggering fierce battles between the protesters and the security forces, which used teargas and rubber bullets.

Several people have been arrested, and the opposition has denounced what it calls an "excessive use of force in dealing with the legitimate demands of the people". Once again, it has also called for the end to the restricted "troika" coalition government and the forming of a broader coalition government instead.

However, Tunisian Prime Minister Hamadi Al-Jibali has not responded to such criticisms, and the leader of the Al-Nahda Party, Rached Al-Ghanouchi, commented that "the enemies of Islam are willing to destroy the country in order to ensure that Al-Nahda does not succeed. But their attempts will fail as long as the nation adheres to its religion and righteous path."

Al-Ghanouchi said that the Al-Nahda victory in last year's elections would "pave the way for the success of the Islamist project after the Revolution," perhaps a reference to Al-Nahda's desire to do away with the modernising reforms passed during the rule of former Tunisian president Habib Bourguiba, which are championed by the opposition as well as by Al-Sebsi, who has defended the reforms as fundamental pillars of modern Tunisian society.

The political dimensions of such conflicts have been illustrated in the fractures that have taken place in the ruling troika government and the unrest that took place in the constituent assembly during the last week before parliament's recess.

On this occasion, several MPs joined the Tunisia Call Party, making the Party a member of the assembly even though its candidates had not stood in the elections. This in itself will mean that the previous kind of heated politics will return in full force when the assembly reconvenes.


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الأحد، 5 أغسطس 2012

Power and possibility

As the global quest for power continues, pushing and pulling events, there may be emerging a new entity on the global stage: the revolutionary Arab nation, writes Mohsen Zahran

Sixty long years have passed since 23 July 1952 coup d'état by the young Free Officers and the ousting of King Farouk of Egypt and the Sudan. The subsequent quest for power and control of Egypt's destiny, and the establishment of the new revolutionary Republic of Egypt witnessed a succession of authoritarian rule by ex-army officers: president Gamal Abdel-Nasser for 16 years, Anwar El-Sadat for 11 years and Hosni Mubarak for 30 years. These were six decades of totalitarianism, injustice, conflicts, decline, corruption, economic stagnation, suffering, dependence on foreign aid, despair, and desperation politically, economically, socially and culturally.

The 25 January youth revolution sparked new hope for Egypt to institute dignity, social justice, freedom, and respect for human rights. Throughout the history of human civilisations, mankind has been preoccupied with, and motivated by, quests for power, authority and control. The manifestations of such quests have ranged from the unification of Upper and Lower Egypt by the Pharaoh Menes during the First Dynasty in about 3000 BC, to the conquests of Ahmos, Thotmosis and Ramses II, to Alexander the Great's armed invasions of Asia Minor, Egypt and Mesopotamia, to the Roman Empire's colonisation of whole regions of Europe, Egypt and the Middle East. The early Islamic campaign to spread the Islamic faith from Egypt to North Africa, southern Europe, to the Middle and Far East (600-900 AD) reflected similar modus operandi.

Three centuries later, the several expeditions of the Crusades, which lasted for nearly two centuries (1100-1300 AD), were aimed at capturing for Christianity the Holy Land of Palestine, together with defending Eastern Europeans against the Turks. They were essentially religious missions of conquest. These were followed shortly thereafter by the emergence and prominence of the Ottoman Empire and the establishment of Istanbul as the seat of the Islamic Caliphate (1400-1900 AD), which lasted for nearly five centuries until the end of World War I, in the early 20th century. Mohamed Ali Pasha established his Alawaite dynasty in Egypt in 1805, and dispatched his armed expeditions into central Africa in order to secure the origin of the River Nile, into the Arab peninsula, into the eastern Mediterranean region of Palestine and Syria, as well as into Turkey, and even into Latin America. Elsewhere, colonial military powers were used consistently by West European countries -- especially England, France, Spain, Portugal, Germany and Italy as well as by Russia, Japan and China -- to conquer neighbouring regions to accomplish their colonial objectives of power, control, security, procurement of needed resources, and subsequently, political, economic and cultural dominance.

Throughout, human civilisations have witnessed the rise and fall of several empires, the disappearance of many nations, the eradication of established entities, in addition to the eruption of horrific wars, causing the tragic killing of the innocent multitudes of millions. The quest for power has its variety of tools and venues, ways and means, in order to achieve its targets, which are not merely innocent or missionary in form or in content. Political objectives of dominance have been primary; however, of no less meaning, value, or implication have been the undeclared objectives of economic, spiritual, social and cultural consequences, with short, medium and long-term goals. After World War II, the East-West power struggle and confrontations, whether overtly or covertly, dominated world actions and events. Strategic plans for a power build-up and expansion of spheres of influence dominated the global scene for decades, with less powerful or "insignificant" countries used as pawns and venues in the global chess game. The ill-fated Arab unity declarations and limited experiments of Gamal Abdel Nasser during the 1950s and 1960s were quickly ambushed and squashed by world powers, through the tripartite (England, France and Israel) aggression of 1956, the dissolution of the union with Syria in 1963, involvement in senseless tribal wars in Yemen, and the Arab-Israeli Six-Day War of 1967.

Although the "Iron Curtain" collapsed at the end of the 20th century, one could see clearly the emergence of a new polarisation with the US and European Union (EU) on one side confronting the challenging role of Russia and China on the other. This polarisation is now compounded, given the current economic depression in the West contrasting with the thriving economies of the Russia and China. At the regional levels, political analysts could point out several rivalries and polarities fuelling the quest for power and authority, be it political, economic, cultural or religious: the Sykes-Picot Agreement of 1916 between Britain and France, with the consent of Russia, divided the spoils and territories of the "Sick Man of Europe", the Ottoman Empire, after its defeat in World War I. The agreement subdivided their spheres of influence in the Middle East and North Africa, regardless of national aspirations and human rights, thus planting the seeds of future conflicts and instability that have been sprouting confrontations and violence during the last 100 years.

The vested interests of the US and Russia, especially concerning the fundamental issues of energy, oil, natural resources, environment and armaments, have continued to influence world politics and international relationships. One can hardly forget George W Bush's evangelistic statements after the Islamic fundamentalists' terrible attack on the World Trade Centre in Manhattan and the Pentagon in Washington, DC, killing nearly 5,000 people, which he referred to the new crusade. US military interventions, in collaboration with the EU, in Iraq and Afghanistan in order to eradicate the sources of terrorism represent a new strategy of power quest and dominance, with its full meaning, scope and implications. The continuing challenge and containment of Iran for its nuclear programme is not also an innocent objective. The various mini-wars and armed conflicts in various African countries, in the Middle and Far East, are part of the grand roadmap of geopolitical power manoeuvres, struggles, drives and conquests. The era of the neo-colonialism is rapidly asserting itself, even engulfing the spreading manifestations of the "Arab Spring" in North Africa and the Middle East. The noble aspirations of the Arab youth uprising to demand freedom, justice, dignity, and employment have been partly aborted, used, misdirected, extinguished or contained in view of the larger objectives of dominance, power, authority, manipulation and control.

At the national level, after the glorious victory of the 25 January Revolution, and during the long transitional period, the military have monopolised all executive, legislative and political authority. Many youth groups have been dismayed and disappointed that after 18 months their goals have been scarcely accomplished. The concepts of polarisation, and of divide and rule policy, have been manifested in most declarations, actions and events. The revolution seems to have stalled, lost steam or being hijacked. Polarisations, conflicts and infighting have become too evident to ignore or disregard. Religiously between the Muslim majority and Coptic minority; the rich and poor; the liberals and the Islamists; the old guard and the new torch carriers; the liberals and the conservatives; the armed forces and civil parties; civil societies and governmental institutions; urban communities and rural conglomerations; the radical Salafis and moderate Al-Azhar, capitalism and socialism, Sunnis and Shias; the haves and the have nots; the revolutionists and the traditionalists; chaos and security; lawlessness associated with the revolution versus totalitarian order linked to the old regime; Upper and Lower Egypt; business and labour; public and private sectors; political parties and independents; young revolutionaries and interest groups; and finally, a religious state or a civic state. The list of contrasts and conflicts and depressing dichotomies appears endless.

The intervention and backing of international and regional power players are too obvious to deny or neglect. US support for the Muslim Brotherhood's assumption of power in Egypt, Tunis, Morocco and evidently in Syria, Algeria and the Gulf States seems almost assured, regardless of their policies and actions in Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan. Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Iran are now additional regional players supporting their pawns, interests or their own banner carriers, although the dominant radical Wahhabi Islamic movement in Saudi Arabia is behind the fanatic Islamists in Egypt, which embraces traditionally moderate Islam. Politics fosters strange bedfellows!

The processes of change and stabilisation will take their course in due time, provided dedication, transparency, sanity and social justice are given top priority, according to a plan of action with a definite roadmap to accomplish unifying national goals. The peaceful 25 January Revolution erupted and deserved universal acclaim, admiration and support. The multi-million crowd, representing people power, gathered in Tahrir Square, demanding basic human rights, has now inspired similar massive popular protests against governments in democratic countries like Spain, Greece, Italy, France and the US. The whispers of agony have been amplified vividly everywhere from Yemen, Bahrain, Jordan, Syria, Israel and Tunis, to Algeria, Morocco and Mauritania.

The world community will never be silent again, for the torch of freedom and basic human rights is too glaring to disregard, for the consequences could be apocalyptical, as the 20,000 martyrs of Syria have recently justly reconfirmed. In retrospect, with all disappointments, despair, impatience, instability, chaos, lavishness and serious economic decline, a beam of hope prevails. It has ignited patriotic and nationalistic reflections during conflicting events, episodes and demonstrations, strikes in Tahrir and elsewhere. In Egypt, where the central government has ruled for more than 5,000 years, people yearn for stability, order and continuance and prosperity, especially with the election and installation of the first president to be popularly chosen in a democratic and free election. Are the dreams of the renaissance of a multi-national confederation of Islamic states looming on the horizon, with extensive oil wealth, swelling populations of 300 million people of common cultural and religious values and economic aspirations? This new dawn of an emerging regional entity, blessed with multitudinal human and material resources, spread over a land area of nearly five million square miles, roughly equivalent to that of the United States, needs to be recognised, heralded, and nobly upheld.

The writer is emeritus professor of urban planning at the University of Alexandria.


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Power to the people?

Power cuts have been igniting demonstrations across the country, reports Reem Leila

Egypt has been experiencing recurrent power cuts since the beginning of summer, with the problem being made worse by the extra demands placed on the electrical grid by the advent of the holy month of Ramadan. Electricity shortages are now a problem in Cairo, Alexandria, Sohag, Qena, Luxor, Aswan, and Nubia, as well as in the Nile Delta governorates of Beheira and Qalioubiya.

Several Cairo districts have been experiencing regular power cuts, especially Helwan, Shubra, Maadi, Haram, Heliopolis and Nasr City. In Upper Egypt, residents of the town of Sohag protested against the power cuts last week, and the police had to prevent them from attacking the electricity company's offices and governorate buildings.

Villagers from Edfu near Aswan blocked railway traffic for at least three hours on 17 July in protest against the power outages, and the protests only ended when security officials intervened and promised to coordinate with the authorities concerned to solve the problem.

Residents of Luxor expressed their anger at the electricity outages by demonstrating in front of electricity company offices, and the residents of Qena demonstrated in front of governorate buildings and blocked highways, complaining at power outages that have reached 18 hours a day in an effort to reduce loads.

Minister of Energy Hassan Younis declared that emergency measures would be taken to ensure the electricity supply on 19 July, especially during peak times. "Our policy is to rationalise electricity consumption," he said, telling the press on the same day that the shortage in electricity had now reached more than 3,000 megawatts due to increases in consumption.

"Two new electricity generating stations were inaugurated on 21 July, and each will produce 1,800 megawatts," Younis said.

Meanwhile, the National Electricity Control Centre (NECC) has been reducing the load on the country's grid by cutting off power from factories and other organisations that have not paid their electricity bills, these also including individuals, shop owners, and bakeries that are behind in paying their bills.

Mahmoud Balbaa, head of the Electricity Holding Company, has called on people to rationalise their consumption of electricity at this difficult time. "Peak electricity consumption across the country is from 6pm to 9pm, and the NECC is obliged to reduce consumption in order to protect the electrical grid during peak times," he said.

Recent electricity shortages have been due to delays in connecting the West Damietta and Abu Qir power stations to the electrical network. These stations, planned to be connected last May, will be offline until the beginning of August because of technical problems.

The present increased consumption has been due "to an excessive increase in the number of air conditioners, due to the high temperatures," Balbaa said, though he also blamed the Ministry of Petroleum for the cuts. "Due to the fuel crisis that the country has been suffering from over recent months, the Ministry of Petroleum has not been supplying the electricity stations with enough fuel, leading to a reduction in capacity and blackouts."

In order to meet the escalating demand for energy, nearly LE12 billion has been allocated to the emergency plan announced by the Ministry of Energy to increase the capacity of the national grid, with some 2,400 megawatts being immediately added.

Last year, Egypt also saw serious electricity shortages, especially during July and August, but this year's shortages began in May. According to Aktham Abul-Ela, deputy minister of energy, the dramatic rise in consumption is due to the increase in the number of air-conditioning units, up from 900,000 in 2006 to more than five million in 2011.

Many of these units work during peak hours, putting enormous strain on the national grid. As a result, the authorities have had no choice but to implement a temporary solution by cutting power supplies intermittently, he said.

According to Abul-Ela, energy consumption has been increasing by eight per cent per year in recent years, but it increased by 11 per cent in 2011 and 2012. Some 40 per cent of Egypt's electricity production is consumed by domestic users, with industry using some 35 per cent. In industrialised countries, domestic electricity consumption is generally lower than industrial consumption.

"The energy sector will implement projects worth LE12 billion during the 2012-2017 five-year plan," Abul-Ela said. "These projects are expected to add an extra 14,500 megawatts to the country's national grid." During fiscal year 2012/2013 there will also be investment in the electricity sector that will add 12,000 megawatts to the grid's total capacity, he added.


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