A matter of time

The nearer Bashar Al-Assad's regime gets to its end the more dangerous Syria becomes, writes Graham Usher at the United Nations

As the Syrian regime fights for its life in Aleppo, Western states and their regional allies are preparing for the day after the end of President Bashar Al-Assad. Two weeks ago a Russian and Chinese veto denied the UN Security Council even the threat of financial sanctions against his government. Yet, despite this, the United States, Turkey and others are pressing ahead with a political transition without Al-Assad or what remains of his regime.

It was to prevent such a radical shift in the regional balance of power that Russia and China made their vetoes, said Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. "We [were] blocking only the attempt to allow people to support one side in an internal conflict through a UN Security Council resolution."

If so, Russia and China blocked the resolution but not the outcome. Even those most associated with special envoy Kofi Annan's peace plan (which was the core of the vetoed resolution) have now thrown in their lot with the rebels.

"In my opinion it is only a matter of time before a regime that is using such heavy military power and disproportional violence against a civilian population is going to fall," said Major General Robert Mood, the former head of the UN observer mission in Syria. He also warned that the end of Al-Assad would not necessarily mean the end of the Syrian civil war.

Diplomatically of course there is reluctance at the UN to admit the end of the Annan plan for a political transition to a democratic government, if only because there's nothing to replace it. The Arab group is still touting it as the basis of a new General Assembly resolution submitted by Saudi Arabia and Qatar. It cannot be vetoed but, unlike Security Council resolutions, is non-binding. It is expected to be passed by a large majority in the 193 member assembly.

You will find similar consensus against any direct UN military intervention in the Syrian crisis, especially among the five permanent members. Not even the US and France -- the two most vocal regime-changers -- have any desire to repeat the Iraq or Algerian experience. Rather Syria is seen as a geopolitical keystone that holds up a delicate regional architecture of sect, ethnicity, nations and tribes. One jolt could bring the whole house down, with the debris shaking Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey, Iraq, the occupied territories and Israel. And the closer the Syrian regime gets to implosion the more prone it is to jolts.

There are three things UN diplomats and observers most fear should Syria disintegrate as a state. One is the fate of the regime's chemical weapons. Few think it would use them in a blaze of self-destruction. But -- as the regime has warned -- they could be mobilised to deter "external aggression". The problem is that when you define all rebel groups as "agents of foreign powers" the distinction between an internal and external foe becomes a fine one.

One thing, however, is clear: should Syria transfer any chemical or biological warheads to the Lebanese Hizbullah movement Israel has signaled it would intervene militarily. Few think it bluffing.

Second, analysts accept that at a certain point the regime is going to give up trying to hold hostile cities like Damascus and Aleppo. It may opt instead to carve out an Alawite enclave. There are signs the process may have already started, with the army and Shabiha militia ethnically cleansing Sunni areas to secure Alawite villages near Homs as well as on the approaches to the Alawite mountain heartland on the Mediterranean coast. Thousands have been displaced and hundreds killed.

Yet any decision to create a separate Alawite state within the larger Syrian one would mean a full-blown sectarian war, triggering massive refugee flights into neighboring countries, as well as safe zones in Syria. The pressure on the world -- and especially the UN -- to act would be enormous.

Thirdly, wherever the regime retreats, Sunni opposition groups are likely to advance. This seems to be the vision of jihadi wing of the resistance which sees north-eastern Syria as the territorial base they tried and failed to secure in north western Iraq. Any Sunni Islamist resurgence of this order could have a domino effect in Iraq and Lebanon. It would also be met by Iranian and Hizbullah resistance: moving to protect Shia Muslims and Alawites against what would be deemed mortal ideological enemies. Syria's degeneration from a state into a Lebanon-like sectarian war would be complete.

Weapons of Mass Destruction, refugee flows and civil wars in disintegrating states may all require international intervention or at least help. But the UN has proven to be pretty ineffectual when it comes to Syria. And nation states -- regional and otherwise -- prefer to act through proxies. So far most have managed to avoid being sucked into the Syria maelstrom. But that is unlikely to last.

Last weekend a border land next to Turkey but inside Syria was taken over by Syrian Kurdish militants, allied to the PKK, the Turkish Kurdish group that has spent years fighting Ankara. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan was asked whether Turkey would strike inside Syria if the PKK or its allies started to use Syria as a base. "That's not even a matter of discussion," he said. "It's a given".

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Heart of the matter

The constitutional status of the military has yet to be decided, reports Gamal Essam El-Din Members of the Constituent Assembly have almost completed drafting a new constitution

Monday's Administrative Court decision to delay judgement in cases pending against the Constitutional Assembly to 22 September will allow the assembly to complete its drafting of a new constitution. According to assembly spokesman Wahid Abdel-Meguid, a final draft should be completed within three months.

On 30 July the Systems of Government sub-committee was able to wrap up work on articles detailing the powers of the president. It was agreed that should the presidency become vacant as a result of injury, illness or resignation of the vice president, speaker of the People's Assembly or chairman of the Shura Council would assume the prerogatives of office, in that order.

Whoever assumes the presidency will not be eligible to stand in the presidential elections which must follow within 90 days -- a 30-day extension of the 60-day period stipulated by the 1971 constitution.

The sub-committee also agreed that, in line with the 1971 constitution, the president should head the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) and the National Security Council.

Salah Abdel-Maaboud, a member of the sub-committee and of the Salafist Nour Party, revealed that it was also agreed that the president could only dissolve parliament if the move were approved by public referendum. "If a majority of voters said no then the president would be forced to submit his resignation in respect of the principle of separation of powers," said Abdel-Maaboud.

The president's powers to declare a state of emergency will also be curtailed.

"In the draft we have agreed the president must secure cabinet approval and then submit the motion to the People's Assembly for a vote before a state of emergency can be declared," says Abdel-Maaboud. "Any declaration will then be in force for six months and an extension will have to be put to public referendum."

The National Security sub-committee, meanwhile, has been busy reviewing the powers granted to the military under the 1971 constitution. Abul-Ela Madi, chairman of the moderate Islamist Wasat Party and a member of the National Security sub-committee, says the army will be accorded no political role in the new constitution.

The military budget, Madi revealed, will henceforth be divided into two. The first part, covering civil projects implemented by the army, will be subject to public discussion and review by parliament and the Central Auditing Agency (CAA). The second part, which covers armament procurement and training projects, will be discussed only in closed-door meetings by the People's Assembly National Security Committee and by the National Defence Council.

The sub-committee, says Madi, has agreed that many of the provisions included in the 17 June Constitutional Declaration, issued following the dissolution of the People's Assembly, will remain in place, albeit with minor changes. Any declaration of war by the president currently requires "prior approval" of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF). Under the sub-committee's draft the word approval has been replaced by consultation. "Final approval," says Madi, "will be in the hands of the National Defence Council which will be composed of nine civilians and nine military representatives."

Abdel-Meguid argues that the new constitution will not curtail any of the powers and privileges currently enjoyed by the Armed Forces. "It will give SCAF partial -- rather than absolute -- independence from other branches of government," he says.

Whether such reassurances convince the generals remains a moot point. SCAF has insisted repeatedly that provisions in the 1971 constitution pertaining to the military must be retained.

During a 29 July meeting with members of the Judicial Authority sub-committee SCAF legal advisor Mamdouh Shahin proposed that articles in the new constitution dealing with the role of the military judiciary be included in the judicial rather than military chapter. The request was rejected by the sub-committee, which insisted on retaining the 1971 order.

Shahin had argued that "making military justice a part of the judicial authority will guarantee that citizens will face a fair trial." Such a rationale clearly rang alarm bells among sub-committee members.

Military justice, said sub-committee member Noureddin Ali, must be limited to military personnel and kept independent of the civil justice system. Ali also argued that new legislation was required setting the remit of military courts and preventing the appearance of civilians before them.

The Judicial Authority sub-committee finished its hearings on 29 July after discussing the jurisdiction of the two highest judicial authorities in Egypt, the Supreme Constitutional Court (SCC) and the Court of Cassation. The sub-committee also discussed the powers of the prosecutor-general and the State Cases Authority.

Sub-committee rapporteur Taymour Kamel told parliamentary correspondents on 29 June that there was a consensus among members that judicial authorities must have their independence from executive supervision guaranteed.

"The president must not be allowed to appoint judges to the Supreme Constitutional Court or any other judicial authority," said Kamel. "Nor should he be empowered to appoint or fire the prosecutor-general."

The Supreme Judicial Council, headed by chairman of the Court of Cassation, will select the prosecutor-general, though the nominee, says Kamel, "will require the endorsement of the president".

The head of the SCC should be selected by a general assembly of its judges.

According to Kamel, the sub-committee agreed that the SCC will scrutinise new legislation passed by parliament except for laws regulating presidential and parliamentary elections and exercise of political rights which will be revised by the SCC before they are enacted. "This last provision is essential if we are to avoid the dangers inherent in invalidating elections once the results have been announced," said Kamel.

While some sub-committees have forged ahead with their work, "disagreements remain over the first five articles of the constitution which deal with the Islamic Sharia and the role of Al-Azhar", says Abdel-Meguid. "It will also be necessary to hold more hearings over the relationship between the army and other state authorities."

As a consequence the Constituent Assembly's next full meeting, scheduled to be held last Tuesday, has been delayed to 7 August.

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